RBI Announces Annual Policy 2014-15

Monetary and Liquidity Measures

On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, it has been decided to:

• keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 8.0 per cent;
• keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.0 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL);
• reduce the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) of scheduled commercial banks by 50 basis points from 23.0 per cent to 22.5 per cent of their NDTL with effect from the fortnight beginning June 14, 2014;
• reduce the liquidity provided under the export credit refinance (ECR) facility from 50 per cent of eligible export credit outstanding to 32 per cent with immediate effect;
• introduce a special term repo facility of 0.25 per cent of NDTL to compensate fully for the reduction in access to liquidity under the ECR with immediate effect; and
• continue to provide liquidity under 7-day and 14-day term repos of up to 0.75 per cent of NDTL of the banking system.

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at 7.0 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 9.0 per cent.

Assessment

2. Since the first bi-monthly monetary policy statement of April 2014, global activity is evolving at different speeds. A broad-based strengthening of growth is gaining traction in the US and the UK, after a moderation in the first quarter of 2014 due to adverse weather conditions. However, in the euro area, recovery is struggling to gather momentum. The pick-up in sales in Japan in anticipation of the consumption tax hike has been followed by a sharp fall in consumer spending. Growth in coming quarters will depend on all three “arrows” being put in play. Structural constraints continue to impede growth prospects in emerging market economies (EMEs), with concerns about the slowdown in China as its economy rebalances. Financial markets across the world still remain vulnerable to news about the impending normalisation of interest rates in some developed economies, even as some valuations appear frothy.

3. Lead indicators point to continuing sluggishness in domestic economic activity in the first quarter of 2014-15. The outlook for agriculture is clouded by the meteorological department’s forecasts of a delay in the onset of the south-west monsoon with a 60 per cent chance of the occurrence of El Nino. The ongoing contraction in the production of consumer durables and capital goods, coupled with moderation in corporate sales and non-oil non-gold imports, is indicative of continuing weakness in both consumption and investment demand. The decisive election result, together with improved sentiment should, however, create a conducive environment for comprehensive policy actions and a revival in aggregate demand as well as a gradual recovery of growth during the course of the year.

4. Retail inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) increased for the second consecutive month in April, pushed up by a sharp spike in food inflation, especially in the prices of fruits, vegetables, sugar, pulses and milk. CPI inflation excluding food and fuel has moderated gradually since September 2013 although it is still elevated.

5. For the year 2013-14 as a whole, India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to 1.7 per cent of GDP, primarily on account of a decline in gold imports, although other non-oil imports also contracted with the weakening of domestic demand, and there was some pick-up in exports. In April 2014, the trade deficit narrowed sharply due to resumption of export growth after two consecutive months of decline, and the ongoing shrinking of import demand. Robust inflows of portfolio investment, supported by foreign direct investment and external commercial borrowings, kept external financing conditions comfortable and helped add to reserves.

6. With the unwinding of year-end window dressing, the corresponding decline in the size of excess CRR holding of banks as well as the sharp decline in Government cash balances with the Reserve Bank as a result of Government expenditure, liquidity conditions improved significantly in April and May 2014. The average daily access to liquidity from the LAF and term repos during this period has been close to 1.0 per cent of NDTL. The Reserve Bank will continue to monitor liquidity conditions and will actively manage liquidity to ensure adequate flow of credit to the productive sectors.

Policy Stance and Rationale

7. In March and April, CPI headline inflation has risen on the back of a sharp increase in food prices. Some of this price pressure will continue into May, but it is largely seasonal. Moreover, CPI inflation excluding food and fuel has been edging down. The risks to the central forecast of 8 per cent CPI inflation by January 2015 remain broadly balanced. Upside risks in the form of a sub-normal/delayed monsoon on account of possible El Nino effects, geo-political tensions and their impact on fuel prices, and uncertainties surrounding the setting of administered prices appear at this stage to be balanced by the possibility of stronger Government action on food supply and better fiscal consolidation as well as the pass through of recent exchange rate appreciation. Accordingly, at this juncture, it is appropriate to leave the policy rate unchanged, and to allow the disinflationary effects of rate increases undertaken during September 2013-January 2014 to mitigate inflationary pressures in the economy.

8. The Reserve Bank remains committed to keeping the economy on a disinflationary course, taking CPI inflation to 8 per cent by January 2015 and 6 per cent by January 2016. If the economy stays on this course, further policy tightening will not be warranted. On the other hand, if disinflation, adjusting for base effects, is faster than currently anticipated, it will provide headroom for an easing of the policy stance.

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