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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Projected D A For Bank Staff From November 13


I have been assiduously tracking the All India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers since 1987.  This practice started out of my curiosity and it later turned out to be a precursor for calculating the future D.A. (3 months to 6 months in advance) with more than 90% precision.

When I first informed my friends and colleagues well in advance that D.A. was going to increase by 59 slabs from 01-11-2009 for the first time in the banking industry, nobody took my words seriously.  This I told even before the Index for Sep.2009 was officially out.  Later, my forecast (not prediction) was proved to be correct.

In a similar attempt, I have forecast the Dearness Allowance for the quarter from 01-11-2013 to 31-01-2014.

As per my provisional calculations, the D.A. for this period will rise by 5.85% to 6% and the revised D.A. will touch about 95%.

I request you to share this good news with all our bank friends.

Regards,
V Subramanian


D. A. PROJECTED FOR THE PERIOD FROM 01-11-2013 TO 31-01-2014
(Base: 2001=100)
1
Actual AICPI for July, 2012
        212
Projected AICIPI for July, 2013
      233
2
Actual AICPI for August, 2012
        214
Projected AICIPI for August, 2013
     235
3
Actual AICPI for September, 2012
        215
Projected AICPI for September, 2013
     236
4
Average for the Quarter
    213.67
    234.67
5
Equivalent AICPI in 1960=100 Series
4877
Equivalent AICPI in 1960=100 Series
   5356
LESS -
LESS -
6
D.A. at AICPI merged with Basic Pay on 01-11-2007 at the time of 9th BPS
      2836
D.A. at AICPI merged with Basic Pay on 01-11-2007 at the time of 9th BPS
     2836
7
Remainder of AICPI
      2041
Remainder of AICPI
    2520
8
Number of Slabs
      510
Number of Slabs
     630
9
Applicable D.A. % for the quarter beginning 01-11-2012
    76.5
Applicable D.A. % for the quarter beginning 01-11-2013
   94.5
Note:

21 comments:

  1. Dear Sri Subramanian ,
    As against your projections of CPI number(IW)2001=100 for July'13 at 233 points ,actual CPIN stood at 235 points with an increase of 4 points compared to June figure.
    Hope it may further go up in coming months.
    ( Labour Bureau 30.8.13)
    Regards,
    Mohan.P

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was anticipating increase in prices of petroleum products, after Rupee started falling down against all major currencies of the world, during the past 3 weeks. This will have a direct impact on the prices of all products and services and we cannot stop spiralling of prices further. I may not be surprised if AICPI touches 238 points in August, 2013 and 240 points in September, 2013. In such a situation, the revised D.A. for Nov.2013 may be 97.05%.

      Delete
    2. sir, the last round of discussion on salary revision happened on 12 aug, can u tell when the next round of talks will happen. Any idea when the settlement will be finalized .
      What will be the final gross salary of po( may be a bit juvenile, but just could not stop asking)

      Delete
    3. Next round of talks are likely to be on 11.10.2013 at Mumbai.

      Delete
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  2. I assumed y-o-y inflation at 10%, for my calculations. But, thanks to the generosity fo Dr Manmohan Singh and Shri P Chidambaram, we may get more than 6% increase for the next quarter. If you study the past data on AICPI (2001=100), the index for August and September has always risen from July figures at least by 1 or 2 points.

    One more point. At the time of my writing this piece, the drastic fall of Indian Rupee did not occur (I wrote the article on 28th night).

    ReplyDelete
  3. DA for Nov 13 will be above 97%. So dnt worry b happy....

    ReplyDelete
  4. Banker only expect to increase in da because there is uncertaintly on 10th bps

    ReplyDelete
  5. Ya u r right.. Banker only expect to increase in DA.. CPI IW will be high in august as compared to july....in july it is 235 instead of 231 in june .. in august it will be 238 atleast..

    ReplyDelete
  6. Indications are out for AICPIIW for Aug as the CPI 2004=100 index was released on 12.9.2013. As per that the inflation has come down from 9.84 in July to 9.52 in Aug. So, in line with that, the index as per 2001=100 which decides our DA, will not cross 237 most probably in Aug (inflation 10.74%). And the same figure is likely to repeat for Sept(inflation 10.23%) also. Accordingly the DA increase from Nov will be 46 slabs(6.9%)and the total slabs 639 (95.85%)
    (235+237+237)/3=236.33 x 4.93 x 4.63 minus 2836 =2558divided by 4 = 639 slabs.

    ReplyDelete
  7. As per CPI for rural and urban 2004=100 released on 12.9.2013 indicates decrease in inflation. Whereas the WPI 2004-05=100 released on 16.9.2013 reveals that the inflation went up by 1.7%(MoM).
    Accordingly I want to revise the earlier projection of 46 slabs DA to 56 slabs (minimum) keeping into the probable AICPIIW index figures for July,Aug and Sept as 235,239 and 240 respectively.
    Average index 238 x 4.93 x 4.63 / minus 2836 / divided by 4 = 649 slabs (97.35%)OR increase by 56 slabs.(8.4%)

    ReplyDelete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. .....i will not be surprised if DA rate will cross 110% by march 2014..............

    ReplyDelete
  10. No chance. With the proceeds of khariff season crops, the prices of onion and vegetables have already been started to come down to normalcy. DA is expected to increase between 46 to 50 slabs from Nov 2013 and 15 to 20 slabs more from Feb 2014. Means less than or near to 100% of DA by march 2014.

    ReplyDelete
  11. ARNABJIT RAY OF NEWINDIA ASSURANCE HAS PREDICTED AN INCREASE OF 48 TO 50 SLABS OF DA FROM NOV, 2013 AS CPI FIGURES FOR AUGUST & SEPTEMBER WILL BE TRIMMED.

    ReplyDelete
  12. The expected DA slabs would be around 45 to 50 as the CPI(IW) for August 2013 is 237 as against the 235 for July 2013. It is assumed that the CPI(IW) for September 2013 would be 237 to 239

    ReplyDelete
  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
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    अपने अपनी Daily earning के बारे में नहीं बताया हर दिन आप को कितने डॉलर मिलते है क्लियर बताये? तभी में बता पाउँगा की गूगल सही है आपको की ऐडनाउ क्योकि में ऐडसेंस से earn नहीं करता (यहाँ क्लिक कर और हमरी साइट से पैसे कमाए earn money howFn)

    अगर आपको ऐडनाउ एक्टिव करना हो तो यहाँ क्लिक करे तो जल्दी अप्रूव होगा और eaning भी अच्छी मिलेंगी यहाँ से अभी ज्वाइन करे सबसे अच्छा लगा मुझे यह पैसे कमाने के मामले में

    अच्छा सवाल किया अपने मिश्रा जी, हम आपसे कुछ पैसा नहीं लेते पहले तो 10 दिन काम करके देख लो या
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    baise thanks..but jante hai itna to par or bhi rochak jankari नसों में खून कितनी स्पीड से दौड़ता है जानें तथ्य


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