By sri Rajesh Goyal (source: allbankingsolutions.com)
The last few days have seen a lot of activity and visitors on our website have increased a lot. The reason is simple, first CLC meeting. Then negotiation meeting, which was termed as "Satisfactory" by UFBU leaders. Then deferring of strike for 20th and 21st January, 2014. Then another negotiating meeting on 27th January, 2014 meeting. Under pressure from their cadre through social media, the same union leaders who termed the offer of 9.5% as satisfactory, now announce that offer of 10% is a failure. Undoubtedly double talks and no clarity on number of issues which have been raised by us on this website and later on taken up by Mr Dilip Saha through an open letter to AIBOC national level leadership has sent shock waves among the cadres. However, till date there is complete silence from UFBU (27th Evening)
Thus, in a nut shell, one will feel that UFBU is doing a hard work in last 15 days by gearing up the machinery for negotiation. However, an analysis will show that it is nothing but is absolutely on the predicted lines and they are trying to delay it as much as possible. On 19th November, we have uploaded an article under the heading UFBU and IBA Now Adopting Delaying Tactics To Tire the Bankers So That They Give Up Their Demand For Honourable Wage Revision by Rajesh Goyal (uploaded on 19/11/2013).
Under this article I have tried to predict the things that are likely to happen in next two to three months based on my past experience. Below I am giving some extracts from the article along with what has actually happened :-
Predictions As Per Article uploaded at ABS on 19/11/2013
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Status as on evening of 27th January, 2014 (after two months of
predictions) after latest negotiating meeting
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UFBU is likely to issue hardline statement after the meeting on
21st November, 2013
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As perdicted UFBU issued a hardline statement for the undue delay in negotiations and talked
of agitational programme.
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UFBU is likely to announce various agitation programme spanning
over a period of 3 to 4 weeks and ultimately culminating into a strike call
sometime somewhere around middle of January, 2014
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Vide circular dated 21st November, a detailed Agitation Programme was announced with a
strike call for 20th December, 2013
However, unexpected strike call was adhered. It had no
effect and IBA kept silent and now UFBU had to issue strike call for 2 days
i.e. for 20th and 21st January, 2014.
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Just Before the strike date, IBA will appeal for calling of
strike and both parties may go for reconciliation proceedings, and thereby
calling off strike and the meeting for negotiations may be held sometimes
towards the end of January, 2014
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Actually the same thing happened, as was predicted, and both parties attended CLC meeting on 13th
January and strike was kept in abeyance, and meeting was held on 17th
January, 2014, but strike was deferred with IBA offer of 9.5% rise on Pay
Slip component. This created all around confusion as even leaders of
AIBOC of other Banks were kept in dark about details.
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It will be around this time that Election Commission is likely
to announce Election Schedule for next Lok Sabha, and IBA is likely to put
the boggy of model code of conduct and postpone any serious negotiations only
after elections i.e. May 2014
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Now another meeting held on 27th January, 2014 and has resulted
in failure and now two days strike announced for 10th & 11th February,
2014. Election Commission has already announced that it will be holding
an All Party meeting on 4th February, 2014 (i.e. before the next date of strike of 10th
and 11th February) to finalise the dates for Lok Sabha elections. .
Thus announcement for elections can be there any time after 6th February,
2014.
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Further can be predicted by our readers too.
The whole episode makes one thing clear that a fool like me who
has never been associated with any Union can predict as to how UFBU will be
behaving in the days to come. In the said article I have suggested
that UFBU needs to think of some OUT OF BOX strategy to corner IBA and not on
the predicted lines. However, it seems they have run out of
all IDEAS and as a result the life of a general banker has become a
hell.
The kind of response we receive on the articles indicates that
they even offer a novice like me to come forward and lead them.
Knowingly well that I do not have any experience, I think they believe in me
purely because of the sincerity and frankness which I show during my
articles. Therefore, my advise to UFBU is to show sincerity and commitment
towards the aam banker or else time is coming when they will uproot leaders who
are know seen more and more as suckers enjoying on the subscription money
running into crores.
Please, please wake up for the same of your own cadre.
Leaders give indefinite strike instead of 2 days strike and let's see how the corrupt Cong govt and iba play with the sentiments of poor bankers in highly inflationary situations.
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