I have been assiduously tracking the All India
Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers since 1987. This practice
started out of my curiosity and it later turned out to be a precursor for
calculating the future D.A. (3 months to 6 months in advance) with more than
90% precision.
When I first informed my friends and
colleagues well in advance that D.A. was going to increase by 59 slabs from
01-11-2009 for the first time in the banking industry, nobody took my words
seriously. This I told even before the Index for Sep.2009 was officially
out. Later, my forecast (not prediction) was proved to be
correct.
In a similar attempt, I have forecast the
Dearness Allowance for the quarter from 01-11-2013 to 31-01-2014.
As per my provisional calculations, the D.A.
for this period will rise by 5.85% to 6% and the revised D.A. will touch about
95%.
I request you to share this good news with all
our bank friends.
Regards,
V Subramanian
D. A. PROJECTED FOR THE PERIOD FROM 01-11-2013 TO 31-01-2014
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(Base: 2001=100)
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1
|
Actual AICPI for July, 2012
|
212
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Projected AICIPI for July, 2013
|
233
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2
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Actual AICPI for August, 2012
|
214
|
Projected AICIPI for August, 2013
|
235
|
3
|
Actual AICPI for September, 2012
|
215
|
Projected AICPI for September,
2013
|
236
|
4
|
Average for the Quarter
|
213.67
|
234.67
|
|
5
|
Equivalent AICPI in 1960=100
Series
|
4877
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Equivalent AICPI in 1960=100
Series
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5356
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LESS -
|
LESS -
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6
|
D.A. at AICPI merged with Basic
Pay on 01-11-2007 at the time of 9th BPS
|
2836
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D.A. at AICPI merged with Basic
Pay on 01-11-2007 at the time of 9th BPS
|
2836
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7
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Remainder of AICPI
|
2041
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Remainder of AICPI
|
2520
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8
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Number of Slabs
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510
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Number of Slabs
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630
|
9
|
Applicable D.A. % for the quarter
beginning 01-11-2012
|
76.5
|
Applicable D.A. % for the quarter
beginning 01-11-2013
|
94.5
|
Note:
|
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Dear Sri Subramanian ,
ReplyDeleteAs against your projections of CPI number(IW)2001=100 for July'13 at 233 points ,actual CPIN stood at 235 points with an increase of 4 points compared to June figure.
Hope it may further go up in coming months.
( Labour Bureau 30.8.13)
Regards,
Mohan.P
I was anticipating increase in prices of petroleum products, after Rupee started falling down against all major currencies of the world, during the past 3 weeks. This will have a direct impact on the prices of all products and services and we cannot stop spiralling of prices further. I may not be surprised if AICPI touches 238 points in August, 2013 and 240 points in September, 2013. In such a situation, the revised D.A. for Nov.2013 may be 97.05%.
Deletesir, the last round of discussion on salary revision happened on 12 aug, can u tell when the next round of talks will happen. Any idea when the settlement will be finalized .
DeleteWhat will be the final gross salary of po( may be a bit juvenile, but just could not stop asking)
Next round of talks are likely to be on 11.10.2013 at Mumbai.
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बरना इतने लोग PER DAYS वेबसाइट अपडेट्स नहीं करते कई लोगो ने अपना पूरा व्यापर खोल लिया हे इंटरनेट में बहुत कमाई है (वेबसाइट HowFn से कमाई करे ये तरीके Earn money online website) आपको आपके पैसे डायरेक्ट बैंक अकाउंट में मिलते है
अपने अपनी Daily earning के बारे में नहीं बताया हर दिन आप को कितने डॉलर मिलते है क्लियर बताये? तभी में बता पाउँगा की गूगल सही है आपको की ऐडनाउ क्योकि में ऐडसेंस से earn नहीं करता (यहाँ क्लिक कर और हमरी साइट से पैसे कमाए earn money howFn)
अगर आपको ऐडनाउ एक्टिव करना हो तो यहाँ क्लिक करे तो जल्दी अप्रूव होगा और eaning भी अच्छी मिलेंगी यहाँ से अभी ज्वाइन करे सबसे अच्छा लगा मुझे यह पैसे कमाने के मामले में
अच्छा सवाल किया अपने मिश्रा जी, हम आपसे कुछ पैसा नहीं लेते पहले तो 10 दिन काम करके देख लो या
यहाँ क्लिक कर देखे जो अभी तक पैसा कमाए उनकी जानकारी Payment Proof website review trust यह एक पॉपुलर वेबसाइट है क्योकि ट्रस्ट बनाया है हर दिन लाखो पेज विजिट होते है
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baise thanks..but jante hai itna to par or bhi rochak jankari नसों में खून कितनी स्पीड से दौड़ता है जानें तथ्य
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I assumed y-o-y inflation at 10%, for my calculations. But, thanks to the generosity fo Dr Manmohan Singh and Shri P Chidambaram, we may get more than 6% increase for the next quarter. If you study the past data on AICPI (2001=100), the index for August and September has always risen from July figures at least by 1 or 2 points.
ReplyDeleteOne more point. At the time of my writing this piece, the drastic fall of Indian Rupee did not occur (I wrote the article on 28th night).
DA for Nov 13 will be above 97%. So dnt worry b happy....
ReplyDeleteBanker only expect to increase in da because there is uncertaintly on 10th bps
ReplyDeleteYa u r right.. Banker only expect to increase in DA.. CPI IW will be high in august as compared to july....in july it is 235 instead of 231 in june .. in august it will be 238 atleast..
ReplyDeleteIndications are out for AICPIIW for Aug as the CPI 2004=100 index was released on 12.9.2013. As per that the inflation has come down from 9.84 in July to 9.52 in Aug. So, in line with that, the index as per 2001=100 which decides our DA, will not cross 237 most probably in Aug (inflation 10.74%). And the same figure is likely to repeat for Sept(inflation 10.23%) also. Accordingly the DA increase from Nov will be 46 slabs(6.9%)and the total slabs 639 (95.85%)
ReplyDelete(235+237+237)/3=236.33 x 4.93 x 4.63 minus 2836 =2558divided by 4 = 639 slabs.
As per CPI for rural and urban 2004=100 released on 12.9.2013 indicates decrease in inflation. Whereas the WPI 2004-05=100 released on 16.9.2013 reveals that the inflation went up by 1.7%(MoM).
ReplyDeleteAccordingly I want to revise the earlier projection of 46 slabs DA to 56 slabs (minimum) keeping into the probable AICPIIW index figures for July,Aug and Sept as 235,239 and 240 respectively.
Average index 238 x 4.93 x 4.63 / minus 2836 / divided by 4 = 649 slabs (97.35%)OR increase by 56 slabs.(8.4%)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete.....i will not be surprised if DA rate will cross 110% by march 2014..............
ReplyDeleteNo chance. With the proceeds of khariff season crops, the prices of onion and vegetables have already been started to come down to normalcy. DA is expected to increase between 46 to 50 slabs from Nov 2013 and 15 to 20 slabs more from Feb 2014. Means less than or near to 100% of DA by march 2014.
ReplyDeleteARNABJIT RAY OF NEWINDIA ASSURANCE HAS PREDICTED AN INCREASE OF 48 TO 50 SLABS OF DA FROM NOV, 2013 AS CPI FIGURES FOR AUGUST & SEPTEMBER WILL BE TRIMMED.
ReplyDeleteThe expected DA slabs would be around 45 to 50 as the CPI(IW) for August 2013 is 237 as against the 235 for July 2013. It is assumed that the CPI(IW) for September 2013 would be 237 to 239
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete$9 Million Fraud Judgment Against Antony Gordon In Federal Court
ReplyDeleteThis fraud judgment has led to Antony Gordon’s Chapter Seven bankruptcy, which is a straight liquidation.
This (2:13-ap-01536-DS 1568931 Ontario Ltd., an Ontario (Canada Corporati v. Gordon et al) looks like a $9 million dollar fraud judgment in federal court against Rabbi Chanan (Antony) Gordon (an attorney, motivational speaker, and hedge fund manager).
http://www.lukeford.net/blog/?p=59030
वेबसाइट से 100 % पैसे की कमाई होती हे
ReplyDeleteEARN ------------ वेबसाइट HowFn से कमाई करे ये तरीके Earn money online website) आपको आपके पैसे डायरेक्ट बैंक अकाउंट में मिलते है
अपने अपनी Daily earning के बारे में नहीं बताया हर दिन आप को कितने डॉलर मिलते है क्लियर बताये? तभी में बता पाउँगा की गूगल सही है आपको की ऐडनाउ क्योकि में ऐडसेंस से earn नहीं करता (यहाँ क्लिक कर और हमरी साइट से पैसे कमाए earn money howFn)
अगर आपको ऐडनाउ एक्टिव करना हो तो यहाँ क्लिक करे तो जल्दी अप्रूव होगा और eaning भी अच्छी मिलेंगी यहाँ से अभी ज्वाइन करे सबसे अच्छा लगा मुझे यह पैसे कमाने के मामले में
अच्छा सवाल किया अपने मिश्रा जी, हम आपसे कुछ पैसा नहीं लेते पहले तो 10 दिन काम करके देख लो या
यहाँ क्लिक कर देखे जो अभी तक पैसा कमाए उनकी जानकारी Payment Proof website review trust यह एक पॉपुलर वेबसाइट है क्योकि ट्रस्ट बनाया है हर दिन लाखो पेज विजिट होते है
ADD YOUR WhatsApp Number with Girls interested friendship click Here
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इस लिंक को क्लिक करे और जाने वाई फाई पासवर्ड कैसे जाने हैकर Secure wifi password
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यहाँ दूसरी टिप्स है यह भी देखे -
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Hack WIFI - 11 Seconds internet trick in android connection
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इंडियन बॉयज के नंबर्स यहाँ क्लिक्स से देखे और अपना ऐड करे Top.howFn.com
baise thanks..but jante hai itna to par or bhi rochak jankari नसों में खून कितनी स्पीड से दौड़ता है जानें तथ्य
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इंडियन बॉयज के नंबर्स यहाँ क्लिक्स से देखे और अपना ऐड करे Top.howFn.com
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